Population woes plague province
The Leader-Post (Regina)
Sat 06 Oct 2007
Page: D1 /
FRONT
Section: Business & Agriculture
Byline: Bruce Johnstone

Column: Bruce Johnstone
Source: The Leader-Post

Saskatchewan has a population complex.

Few provinces, if any, have anguished over its population growth, or lack
thereof, than Saskatchewan.

Frankly, we're embarrassed, even ashamed, about our population, which has
hovered at or below one million for the last 75 years.

We look enviously to our sister province of Alberta, which had roughly the
same population as Saskatchewan until the late 1940s, when Imperial Oil
discovered oil at Leduc. That's when the two sisters' paths diverged.

While Alberta's population has grown more than three-fold in the last six
decades, Saskatchewan's has remained stubbornly the same.

Well, the Saskatchewan Chamber of Commerce wants to do something about that.
Chamber president Dave Dutchak says Saskatchewan's continued stagnant population
growth is "unacceptable.''

That's why the chamber is calling for the province's population to be
increased to 1.5 million by 2030. That's a tall order.

In order to increase the province's population by 50 per cent in less than 25
years, our population growth rate will have to average 1.8-per-cent annually.

Not only is that twice the rate of growth of the past year, it's higher than
Alberta's average growth of 1.6 per cent during the last 25 years.

The chamber says the target is "ambitious, but achievable.'' Everyone agrees
that 1.5 million is ambitious, but some experts would say it's a long shot.

For example, the C.D. Howe Institute recently released its own preliminary
projections of Saskatchewan population under two different scenarios: continued
outmigration based on the five-year average and zero net-outmigration.

Under the continued outmigration scenario, Saskatchewan's population would
decline to about 900,000 by 2030, while under the no-outmigration scenario rise
to about 1.1 million by 2030.

Similarly, a 2006 study by the Canada Rural Economy Research Lab at the
University of Saskatchewan showed that the province's population was "not
holding its own.''

"Our engines of growth -- our nine urban centres -- are collectively
struggling and rural Saskatchewan is in serious decline. Obviously, a trend line
out 20 or 30 years is very unattractive.''

The point is Saskatchewan faces some serious demographic challenges -- the
hollowed-out working age population; the high dependency ratio (percentage of
population under 15 and over 65); the aboriginal population's relatively low
education, income and employment rates; the continued rural-urban shift;
outmigration of young people; etc.

Just setting a target of 1.5 million population by 2030 won't make these
challenges disappear. Concerted efforts on each of these files will be required
before we can hope to reverse the long-term trends of population decline and
economic stagnation.

Having said that, the chamber's approach has considerable merit. By adopting
the 1.5 million population target, we set our sights higher.

As Dutchak noted, Roughrider head coach Kent Austin wouldn't tell his players
that winning half their games is good enough. Austin expects the Riders to win
all their games and expects that his players feel and act the same way.

Another valid criticism of the chamber's growth strategy is that it contains
no specific recommendations or detailed policy proposals. Critics will ask: How
can we get to our destination if we don't have a road map?

Of course, it would be premature, even presumptuous, for the chamber to
maintain it has all the answers. Clearly, business, government, labour and other
stakeholders will have to participate in the process of developing the growth
strategy.

What the chamber is doing is raising the bar in the province's never-ending
debate about why our population isn't growing. Sure, the target is ambitious,
perhaps unachievable.

But Dutchak -- a long-suffering Leafs fan -- believes you have to set a goal
before you can achieve it. For more than 40 years, Dutchak has never given up
believing the Leafs will win the Stanley Cup again.

By comparison, increasing Saskatchewan's population by 50 per cent in less
than 25 years should be a piece of cake.

- Bruce Johnstone is the Leader-Post's financial editor.

Idnumber: 200710060096
Edition: Final
Story
Type: Business; Column
Length: 647 words