Study says aging workers less productive

The Globe and Mail

By VIRGINIA GALT
WORKPLACE REPORTER
Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - Page B9

 

Baby boomers are now in their prime productive years, but inevitably, they will slow down, posing "ominous implications" for Canadian productivity and living standards, according to a C.D. Howe Institute study released yesterday.

Citing "a strong negative association between an elderly work force and labour productivity," analyst Yvan Guillemette said policy makers will have to find ways to offset the drag exerted by Canada's aging work force.

Not only are employees in their 60s "the least productive of all," he wrote, they also save less, reducing the pool of capital available for business investment.

There is nothing policy makers can do about demographics, the institute said in its report, Slowing Down With Age: The Ominous Implications of Workforce Aging for Canadian Living Standards. However, "a policy environment that encourages saving and capital accumulation may help avoid the potential lowering of living standards that Canada's changing demographics might cause."

Mr. Guillemette wrote that productivity is projected to increase "until the year 2007, while baby boomers are still in their prime productive years, then decline."

The wave of retirements over the next 10 years and projected labour shortages will hurt productivity. But the increasing share of older workers in the labour force will also be a factor, he wrote.

"So it is no quick cure to suggest that all we need to do is convince older workers to increase the number of hours they work, or stay in the work force longer . . . because a higher share of low-productivity workers would now be part of the work force."

In any event, Mr. Guillemette added, the trend has been toward earlier retirement.

Canadian immigration rates might also rise, he wrote, but not enough "to bring about modest shifts in the proportion of older people.

"Moreover, Canada will be only one of a number of industrialized countries looking for immigrants to dampen the aging effects -- the market for skilled immigrants is likely to become even more competitive."